Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Recent flooding has led to crop losses in parts of Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states.

Reason for Concern

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Current Observations

Escalated conflict in Aden, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah since August has increased access constraints. Fuel shortages are beginning to manifest, expected to further increase food prices. 

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2019 main season. Over 2 million people are currently internally displaced.

Current Observations

The number of internally displaced people reached over 2.0 million people in July 2019.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Current Observations

Concurrent outbreaks of Ebola, cholera, and measles are ongoing in eastern DRC. 

Reason for Concern

The 2018/19 rainfall season was among the worst on record in parts of the country characterized by drought conditions. Additionally, the macroeconomy is highly volatile affecting household food access.

Current Observations

Fuel prices continue to increase on a weekly basis this is leading to significant increases in transportation costs by 100 percent between July and September.

Reason for Concern

The 2019 Gu/long rains season was well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Current Observations

Above-average June-September rains have driven some crop recovery in northwestern Somalia and western Kenya. In Ethiopia, heavy Kiremt rains have led to localized crop loss. 

Reason for Concern

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

Current Observations

While Southern Africa is typically self-sufficient in maize grain, the 2019/20 marketing year is expected to have below-average net supply. The restricted supply is pushing prices 10 to 80 percent above the five-year average. 

Reason for Concern

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Current Observations

Humanitarian food assistance continues in central and northern areas; however, continued assistance and a scale-up of assistance in southern areas is necessary as the lean season approaches.

Reason for Concern

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 630,000 people are displaced throughout the region. 

Current Observations

As a result of insecurity, livestock movements continue to be significantly hampered and access to fodder resources remains limited.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Recent flooding has led to crop losses in parts of Lakes, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states.

Yemen

Protracted conflict has severely disrupted livelihoods and reduced incomes. Food prices remain elevated and food access is inadequate for many households. Currently, 17 million people are in need of humanitarian food assistance.

Escalated conflict in Aden, Hajjah, and Al Hudaydah since August has increased access constraints. Fuel shortages are beginning to manifest, expected to further increase food prices. 

Nigeria

Boko Haram attacks continue in the northeast, and the ongoing conflict will likely severely limit area cultivated during the 2019 main season. Over 2 million people are currently internally displaced.

The number of internally displaced people reached over 2.0 million people in July 2019.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Observations
DRC

Ongoing conflicts in the Kasai region, North Kivu, South Kivu, Ituri, Maniema, and Tanganyika Provinces have caused continuing displacement and affected households’ abilities to access typical livelihood activities. 

Concurrent outbreaks of Ebola, cholera, and measles are ongoing in eastern DRC. 

Zimbabwe

The 2018/19 rainfall season was among the worst on record in parts of the country characterized by drought conditions. Additionally, the macroeconomy is highly volatile affecting household food access.

Fuel prices continue to increase on a weekly basis this is leading to significant increases in transportation costs by 100 percent between July and September.

Horn of Africa

The 2019 Gu/long rains season was well below average and follows a below-average 2018/19 Deyr/short rains season. In many areas, households are still recovering from the 2016/17 drought.

Above-average June-September rains have driven some crop recovery in northwestern Somalia and western Kenya. In Ethiopia, heavy Kiremt rains have led to localized crop loss. 

Southern Africa

Poorly distributed rains and drought conditions will lead to production losses during the main harvest for smallholders in parts of Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zimbabwe.

While Southern Africa is typically self-sufficient in maize grain, the 2019/20 marketing year is expected to have below-average net supply. The restricted supply is pushing prices 10 to 80 percent above the five-year average. 

Mozambique

The impacts of tropical cyclones Desmond, Idai, and Kenneth have led to death, displacement, and widespread destruction. Additionally, the rainy season performed poorly in southern areas.

Humanitarian food assistance continues in central and northern areas; however, continued assistance and a scale-up of assistance in southern areas is necessary as the lean season approaches.

Liptako-Gourma

The deteriorating security situation is disrupting household access to livelihoods and markets. At least 630,000 people are displaced throughout the region. 

As a result of insecurity, livestock movements continue to be significantly hampered and access to fodder resources remains limited.

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Peak needs 2018

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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