Food Security Outlook Update

Current wet season performance is slow to start in Central Asia

February 2014
2014-Q1-0-0-central-asia-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food security outcomes from February to June 2014 in Afghanistan are anticipated to be Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout much of the country, given the above-normal 2013 harvest, livestock prices above the five-year average, and adequate labor opportunities during the main agricultural season in 2013.

  • In contrast, the 2013 harvest in Afghanistan’s West-Central Highlands Agropastoral livelihood zone was significantly below normal, enough to cause a current and potential food consumption gap for poor households there. External assistance though is likely to offset food shortages from February to March 2014, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes. From April to June, food security outcomes are anticipated to return to Minimal if normal livelihood opportunities resume.

  • Newly displaced IDPs (within the last 6 months) in Afghanistan continue to have difficulty meeting their basic survival needs as they are unable to rely on their usual sources of food and income, as labor opportunities are especially limited during wintertime while expenses reach their seasonal peak. These IDPs, particularly those who did not receive winterization packages, typically including firewood, food, and blankets, could see Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes from February to March 2014. Food security outcomes are expected to shift back to Stressed when daily labor opportunities resume at the end of March.

  • From February to June 2014, Tajikistan food security outcomes are expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The 2013 above-normal wheat harvest (15 percent more than in 2012) has enabled rural households to have ample staple food stocks during winter, while potato harvest was normal to above normal and remittances were at record high levels.

  • Compared to the long-term average, the wet season performance from October 1, 2013 to February 28, 2014 according to remote sensing was significantly below normal in northern Afghanistan as well as in southern Tajikistan. However, given that the critical period of time for rainfed crops is from March to June, FEWS NET will be closely following precipitation in the upcoming months in order to anticipate any potential impact on the regional harvests.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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