Key Message Update

Long rains production in marginal agricultural areas will be significantly below average

May 2019

May 2019

June - September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
WFP
Kenya - NDMA

Key Messages

  • Due to persistent rainfall deficits, pastoral areas continue to experience high levels of atypical livestock migration in response to below-average forage and water availability. Incidence of livestock disease and resource-based conflict are consequently on the rise, while livestock body conditions and milk production remain below average. In marginal agricultural areas, replanted crops in the southeast are moisture stressed and withering, diminishing prospects for partial recovery of short-cycle and main crop production. Crop production will be significantly below average for the second consecutive season. Below-average food and income sources are expected to drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in most areas through September.

  • The 2019 March to May long rains have continued to perform significantly below average. According to satellite-derived data, cumulative rainfall through May 25th is at least 20 percent below average across most of the country. Pastoral and coastal areas in eastern Kenya, as well as parts of western Kenya’s high and medium potential agricultural zones, have accumulated larger deficits that range from 50 to 75 percent below average. Deficits are least severe in northwestern pastoral Kenya, where rainfall is 20 percent below average to normal.

  • Although planting was delayed and substantial rainfall deficits persist in unimodal crop production areas, a forecast of increased rainfall through August is currently anticipated to support near-normal crop development. High incidence of Fall Armyworm (FAW) has been reported across western Kenya’s agropastoral, high potential, and marginal agricultural livelihood zones, due to below-average rainfall and farmers’ limited capacity to access pesticides. This has mostly affected maize and sorghum in early development stages in Uasin Gishu, Trans Nzoia, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Laikipia, Narok, Busia, and Kisumu counties. However, increased rainfall in May is reducing pest levels, allowing crops that are currently in vegetative stages to recover.

  • From March to April, maize prices increased by 6 to 52 percent in most key reference markets, driven by the anticipation of below-average long rains production and by current high household demand and reduced supply. However, prices widely remain comparable to the April five-year average, with few exceptions. In Kisumu, Kilifi, and Turkana, prices were 13, 23, and 26 percent below average due to better availability of cross-border imports in local markets. In Turkana, relief food distribution has also mitigated price increases. In Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Isiolo, Wajir, and Mandera, prices ranged from 10 to 18 percent above average, attributed to higher rises in local demand and source market prices.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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