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Presence Country
Seasonal Monitor

Torrential rainfall in parts of northwestern Somalia causes significant destruction

May 23, 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

According to both field information and satellite-derived rainfall estimates, rainfall was average or above average in most parts of the country between May 11 and 20. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimates (RFE2), 10-50 millimeters (mm) of rainfall were received in many areas of the country, with localized areas receiving up to 75 mm of rainfall (Figure 1). Rainfall totals were climatologically average in most areas, though 10 to 50 mm above average in various regions across Somalia. There were a few areas of exception where rainfall was around 50 mm below the short-term mean (Figure 2). Across coastal areas of northwestern Somalia, Cyclone Sagar drove heavy rainfall that resulted in flashfloods across Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal. Localized flooding was also reported in parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, while several areas of Hiraan, Lower and Middle Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba remain flooded.  

Current Situation

In the Northwest, torrential rainfall driven by Cyclone Sagar caused widespread flooding across Guban Pastoral livelihood zone of Awdal, killing around 30 people and a significant number of livestock and destroying infrastructure in Lugahaya and Baki districts. Moderate to heavy rainfall was also reported in most livelihood zones of Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag. Rainfall in these regions was between 10 and 75 mm and provided welcomed relief following prolonged dryness and previous seasons of drought.   

In the Northeast, moderate to heavy rainfall was received in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones of northern Mudug and Nugaal, while light to moderate rainfall was recorded in Northern Inland Pastoral and Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zones of the same regions. In Bari, heavy rainfall and flooding was reported in parts of Alula, Iskushuban, and Qardho, resulting in livestock deaths and the closure of roads. Conversely, little to no rainfall was received in most parts of Alula, Bossaso, Bandarbeyla, and Iskushuban.

In central regions, field reports indicated that most livelihood zones received moderate to heavy rainfall between May 11 and 20. Heavy rainfall was reported in parts of Central (cowpea) Agropastoral livelihood zone of Hobyo and damaged an estimated 80 hectares of cowpea crops and caused some livestock deaths. Despite these negative impacts, overall the rainfall has regenerated rangeland and replenished water sources, both of which are improving livestock body conditions and productivity.

In the South, satellite-derived rainfall estimates and field information indicate moderate to heavy rainfall was received across most regions during the reporting period. However, field reports indicate that rainfall was only light to moderate in Hiraan and Bakool, and little to no rainfall was reported in Gedo. Rain gauge stations recorded 21-63 mm in Bay, 24-98 mm in Hiraan, 60 mm in Sakow of Middle Juba, and 25-51 mm in Lower Shabelle. Localized river floods were reported in Lower and Middle Shabelle and caused damage to some crops, and flashfloods occurred in agropastoral areas of Balad in Middle Shabelle. 

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for May 11-20 shows continued above-average vegetation conditions in many areas of the country (Figure 3). With the heavy rainfall in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, improved vegetation conditions are likely in the coming weeks. According to the Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast, little to no rainfall is forecast across Somalia for May 24 to 30, with the exception of eastern parts of Lower Shabelle and Lower and Middle Juba where approximately 30 mm of rainfall are forecast (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

FEWS NET publishes a Seasonal Monitor for Somalia every 10 days (dekad) through the end of the current April to June Gu rainy season. The purpose of this document is to provide updated information on the progress of the Gu season to facilitate contingency and response planning. This Somalia Seasonal Monitor is valid through May 31, 2018 and is produced in collaboration with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) Somalia, the Somali Water and Land Information System (SWALIM), a number of other agencies, and several Somali nongovernmental organizations(NGOs).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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