Informe de mercados regionales

Southern Africa Maize Regional Supply and Market Outlook

Septiembre 2019

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Sin mapa
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF v3.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Parques y reservas
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Sin mapa
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisis que es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero no necesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria. FEWS NET presenta el mapa para el este de la RDC solamente.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. To learn more about typical market conditions in Southern Africa, readers are invited to explore the Southern Africa Regional Maize Market Fundamentals Summary.

Mensajes clave

  • The Southern Africa region, which is typically self-sufficient in maize, will have a below-average net maize supply in the 2019/20 marketing year. This supply will also be lower than that of the 2018/19 marketing year. The region is expected to register a net maize supply of 100,000 MT, which is less than a tenth of the five-year average net supply. This is the lowest that supplies have been since the 2016/17 marketing year when supplies were exceptionally low as a result of El Niño conditions.

  • The region’s 2019 maize harvest was 10 percent below average due to an unusual dichotomy of severe drought, cyclones, and flooding experienced during the 2018/19 agricultural season. Most countries are likely to post maize deficits while a few will register minor surpluses in the 2019/20 marketing year. South Africa and Zambia, the two key maize producing countries in the region have seen maize harvest declines of 9 percent and 32 percent respectively compared to their respective five-year averages.

  • Due to tighter than normal regional maize supplies this marketing year, the region will need imports to satisfy national requirements among structurally maize deficit countries.   Atypically large imports of maize grain from international markets are likely to flow into South Africa and Zimbabwe. 

  • In terms of intra-regional trade, South Africa’s maize export volumes to Zimbabwe are likely to be above average to meet these countries national requirements in the upcoming marketing year. Due to a reduced harvest, atypically low volumes of maize are expected to flow from Zambia to neighboring countries such as Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Haut-Katanga in DRC. Although Tanzania is expecting an above-average surplus, the bulk of its exports are likely to be destined for Kenya while a small proportion likely to flow to Zimbabwe. 

  • Maize grain prices are generally above five-year average levels. In Malawi and Zambia, maize prices are significantly above average.Prices are expected to remain above average in the region throughout the marketing year.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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