Food Security Outlook

Market supplies although below average are meeting demand

July 2018

July - September 2018

Carte des résultats projetés pour la sécurité alimentaire, juin à septembre 2018: Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans le plupart du Mauritanie, Burkina Faso, Cameroun, et Mali; Crise (Phase 3 de l'IPC) dans les zones pastorales de Mauritanie, Niger, Tchad, et

October 2018 - January 2019

Carte des résultats projetés pour la sécurité alimentaire, octobre 2018 a janvier 2019: Le plupart de la carte est en Minimale (Phase 1 de l'IPC); Stresse (Phase 2 de l'IPC) dans quelques parts du Mauritanie, Niger, Tchad et Nigeria; Crise (Phase 3 de l'I

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The start of the cropping season has been good overall with the start of sowing in the Sahelian countries. Advanced tilling stages are already observed for cereals. However, some fall armyworm damage has already been reported in Burkina Faso and Mali. The regeneration of pastures and water points is gradually reducing livestock dietary difficulties. However, the low level of exports to Nigeria continues to affect livestock / cereals terms of trade to the detriment of pastoralists, although an improvement is expected with the Tabaski holiday in August.

  • Except in the Greater Lake Chad Basin and in northern and central Mali, where markets remain disrupted due to insecurity, elsewhere markets are sufficiently supplied, but at below-average levels. These levels will still be sufficient in the Sahel to satisfy household consumption demand until the next harvests in October thanks to flows from the coastal countries, new off-season harvests, and marketing of stocks and imports. Staple food prices remain higher than the previous month in Nigeria, but stable in the Sahel and coastal countries. Prices remain above average and will remain so throughout the lean season.

  • Most of the region will remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) until January 2019, thanks to the satisfactory supply of markets throughout the lean season, the early harvests from September and the implementation of habitual coping strategies.

  • However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) level food insecurity will continue to affect, until September, the following countries and areas: central and eastern, parts of the Sahel, north-central and southern parts of Mauritania; Eastern Burkina Faso; Chad in the regions of Wadi Fira, Kanem, Barh El Gazel, Batha and Hadjer-Lamis, due to significant decreases in agricultural and pastoral production, and the significant deterioration of livelihoods that negatively affect consumption for poor households; Diffa region and the Lake Chad region in Niger due to the Boko Haram conflict; and in CAR because of the armed conflict.

OUTLOOKS BY COUNTRY

Chad

  • Poor harvests in 2017–2018 in the Lac, Kanem, Barh el Gazel, Batha, Wadi Fira, Guéra and Hadjer Lamis regions have caused depletion of stocks earlier than usual. This has brought about an early lean season and prolonged dependence on the markets. Household incomes are below average due to the financial crisis, meaning that the consumption deficit cannot be covered.
  • The pastoral situation has suffered greatly owing to a scarcity of pasture in the regions of the Sahel. Animals are showing poor body condition, resulting in a significant drop in prices, which have fallen below average. This, in turn, has caused a deterioration in the terms of trade for livestock/cereals, limiting access to the market. The price of cereals remains relatively close to the average. 
  • Current humanitarian assistance is attempting to respond to the cereal deficits of 2017. The intervention is expected to last four months, from June to September 2018, for the entire Sahel region, except for Wadi Fira, where it will last for five months. It will reach an estimated 379,016 people classified as being in IPC Phase 3 and above (Cadre Harmonisé, March 2018).

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2018 to January 2019.

Mali

  • The 2018–2019 agricultural growing season has begun in Mali. Average to above-average rainfall throughout the country, based on seasonal forecasts and various forms of assistance (supplies, agricultural equipment and hydro-agricultural development schemes) provided by the government and its partners, suggest average to above-average cereal production in October 2018.
  • The availability of cereals at markets across the country remains adequate, despite a sharper than usual seasonal drop in supplies. Cereal prices in general are much higher than the average and the sharp deterioration in terms of trade for livestock and cereals compared with the average is limiting poor households’ access to food.
  • A worse than average lean season in the farming areas of the Gao and Timbuktu regions, the lakes area of Goundam and some places in the Inner Niger Delta and western Sahel is causing poor households to adopt unusual coping strategies to meet their food needs. At present, food insecurity is in a Stressed (IPC Phase 2) situation, which is expected to worsen between June and September (IPC Phase 2), in the absence of humanitarian assistance.
  • Households’ access to food will improve in October, thanks to the average to above-average cereal and livestock production expected in the country, lower cereal prices and improved terms of trade for livestock and cereals. As a result, food insecurity throughout the country will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from October 2018 to January 2019.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2018 to January 2019.

Mauritania

  • Although consumer markets are well stocked with imported food (rice, oil, sugar, tea, pasta), the continuing rise in their prices since the month of Ramadan (May) is limiting poor households’ access to them. The fall in livestock prices and the lack of seasonal rural income-generating activities are reducing poor households’ seasonal incomes.
  • Faced with significant deficits in agricultural production and pasture, and difficulties in accessing water and income, poor rural households have been experiencing a longer and more difficult lean season since January (instead of March or April) than they would in an average year. In certain parts of agropastoral zones – the Senegal River Valley and the rainfed crop area – many households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
  • Assistance programs run by the World Food Programme (WFP), the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) (Action Against Hunger, Oxfam, Save the Children, Caritas, Agency for Cooperation and Research in Development (ACORD), the French Red Cross, Médecins du Monde, etc.) are under way in parts of certain livelihood zones. They involve free distributions of food and livestock feed as well as cash transfers and nutrition support for malnourished children and breastfeeding or pregnant women. However, they are still inadequate to meet the needs reported by humanitarian workers.

 For more information, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2018 to January 2019.

Niger

  • The pastoral area is experiencing a longer and more difficult lean season than normal. Livestock is hard to sell, terms of trade for cereals continue to worsen and livestock farmers are being forced to reduce the size of their herds, placing some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as observed in June and July 2018.
  • Land was sown in 46 percent of agricultural and agropastoral villages as of June 10, 2018. Most poor households in agricultural areas can cover their food needs using income from agricultural labor. They were facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity in June 2018 and will do until January 2019.
  • Markets are stocked with staple foods – both local products and products from neighboring countries (Burkina Faso, Mali, Benin and Nigeria) – but at a lower volume than normal. Prices on the main markets are above the seasonal average, where they are likely to remain throughout the lean season.
  • Displaced populations in the Diffa region continue to suffer the effects of the civil conflict related to Boko Haram, which is impacting their livelihoods and their access to food. Their inability to undertake their livelihood activities coupled with the reduced level of food aid puts them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), which could persist in the region until January 2019 at the earliest.

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2018 to January 2019.

Nigeria

  • Humanitarian actors have provided sustained food assistance delivery in 2018, reaching 2.5 million people in April 2018 across the three northeast states. In May, food assistance deliveries reached 15 percent fewer households, meeting targets closer to what was seen in March 2017. As of late June, the humanitarian response plan was only 45 percent funded, and it is expected current funding for operations will run out before the end of 2018.
  • With the continuing military offensive, new arrivals continue to be identified in the northeast. As of May, IOM identified 1.8 million people displaced by conflict in northeast Nigeria. Between late November 2017 and April 2018 an estimated 100,000 new arrivals across Borno and northern Adamawa States were identified. The current weekly average for new arrivals is 4,500 individuals, many of who are fleeing to LGA headquarters from newly liberated areas.
  • In most of Borno, eastern Yobe and northern Adamawa Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes prevail. Significant areas within these regions remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors, and outcomes are likely similar or worse than in adjoining accessible areas. Additionally, there is continued concern that in a worst-case scenario displaced population, who are often centered in urban areas, could become cutoff due to flooding and/or a shift in conflict, leading to more extreme outcomes.
  • Outside of the northeast, the main agricultural season is progressing favorably in much of the rest of the country, and harvests are expected to be average to above-average. Most households will have seasonally typical access to food and income and remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. However, areas worst-affected by farmer/pastoralist conflict are facing greater difficulty accessing basic needs and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

For more information, see the Food Security Outlook for June 2018 to January 2019.

 

Remote Monitoring Countries[1]

 

Burkina Faso            

  • With humanitarian assistance not due to begin until July, poor households in livelihood zones 5, 7 and 8 are struggling to maintain their consumption levels and are vulnerable to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity.
  • Food availability on the markets is moderate, but due to high prices and deteriorating terms of trade, households are beginning to consume more maize – a less preferred food.
  • In these zones, distributions of free food and money are planned between July and September, which will reach between 24 and 37 percent of the population, meeting more than 90 percent of their needs. This will reduce the food insecurity situation in the area to Stressed ! (IPC Phase 2).

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Update for June 2018.

Central African Republic

  • Since the start of the year, humanitarian assistance has been disrupted by the continued violence of armed groups, who pillage warehouses and hold up humanitarian convoys in several prefectures.
  • In the normal lean season, food insecurity is in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation, which affects displaced and host households, particularly in areas that humanitarian assistance is unable to reach. Access to fields is limited due to security issues and households are relying more on wild products, generally having only one meal a day.
  • Continued and increased violence against the population may jeopardize agriculture production for the fifth consecutive year and continue to worsen livelihoods due to livestock thefts, house and cash crop fires, and households’ limited ability to develop other income-generating activities.

For more information, see the Remote Monitoring Update for June 2018.

[1] With remote monitoring, an analyst typically works from a nearby regional office, relying on a network of partners for data. Compared to the previous series of countries in which FEWS NET has a local office, reports on remote monitoring countries may offer less detail.  

EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

 

Table 1: Possible events in the next eight months that could change the outlook

Area

Event

Impact on food security conditions

North Mali, Northeast Nigeria, Central African Republic, neighboring countries

 

 

 

 

 

Worsening civil insecurity

  • Increased number of IDPs and refugees in neighboring countries
  • Closure of borders of neighboring countries
  • Significant decrease in flows, very low offers in local markets
  • Very low grain flows from Nigeria to Niger, Chad and North Cameroon
  • Severe deterioration of household livelihoods and food and nutrition security
  • Persistent and worsening levels of food insecurity in the Lake Chad Basin

Regional

Spread of infestations of the spodoptera frugiperda caterpillar on crops

  • Damage to crops in affected areas
  • Drop in production especially on maize
  • Tensions on corn marketing
  • Premature price increases in the region

Regional

More severe flooding in main production areas

  • Decline in local production and household stocks
  • Decrease in revenues from the usual sale of crops

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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