Special Report

Nigeria Market Monitoring Report

October 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Elevated Risk of Famine - Phase 5 cannot be confirmed nor disproven with available evidence
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region.

Key Messages

  • Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators continue to improve. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded while the national consumer price index (CPI) has been steady or decreasing in recent months. Global crude oil prices have declined slightly but remain steady and Nigerian foreign exchange reserves remain above USD 43 billion. 

  • Nigeria’s trade balance remained positive through Q2 2019. Crude oil represented between 86 percent of total exports. Formal Inter-bank and informal Bureau de Change NGN/USD rates have remained steady. 

  • Land borders were closed by the Government of Nigeria (GoN) on August 20, 2019 and remain completely closed. Seaports and airports are open and functioning as normal, though the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintains the list of 41 prohibited items, ineligible for foreign exchange reserves. Closing land borders and restricting imports is aimed at minimizing smuggling and illegal activities of kidnappers and armed groups who operate along border communities as well as to protect domestic industry and encourage local production.

  • The lean season (July to September) was atypical this year, especially in the north, with staple prices remaining either stable or declining from month to month. Staple food prices are relatively lower than last year and the five-year average in monitored markets. Prices will continue to decline further as the main harvest intensifies through December. Prices of imported commodities, which are commonly imported informally including imported rice, will increase due to limited supplies with border closings.

  • Prices in northeast Nigeria are relatively higher than the rest of the country due to relatively higher demand and lower supply. Market functionality remains constrained by poor transport infrastructure and insecurity. However, staple food prices have decreased marginally, as evidenced by the WFP transfer value, based on the cost of the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (SMEB), decreased since January in both Maiduguri and Damaturu. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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