Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average rainfall continues across the region

August 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Total seasonal rainfall is above-average over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2) with the exception of few relatively small areas in the northern part of the Sahelian zone.

  • Rainfall deficits are minimal and are not expected to adversely affect crop development with the exception of the western part of the Senegal – Mauritania border area.

  • The western part of the Senegal-Mauritania border is the only area that suffers from both rainfall bad-time distribution (Figure 3)and severe seasonal deficit (Figure 2), a combination likely to hamper crop development in a significant way.

  • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks (August 21th– September 4th) calls for moderate to heavy rains over the entire region, an indication of continued favorable agricultural conditions.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) is now at its climatological position in its portion over Mali and Chad but about 1-1.5 degrees south of it in Mauritania and Niger.  It underwent a 2-3 degrees of latitude drop compared to its position of the first dekad of August (Figure 4).  However, the observed southward movement despite its relatively large size over Mali, Chad and Niger must be a part of normal fluctuations since it is too early for the southward retreat to start and also the medium term forecast calls for a significant amount of rainfall in the northern part of the region.
  • Based on the FAO desert locust early August update the situation is expected to remain calm for the rest of the season; despite favorable rainfall observed during the last couple of months over the breeding area extending from Mauritania to Chad only small scale breeding is expected.
  • The “minor dry season” in the bi-modal zone continues normally.  However, in the other agro-climatological zones rainfall continues in general to be favorable to crops and pastures.  Few small areas in the Sahel have experienced deficits, but no negative effects on crops and range are expected since deficits are mostly light and coupled with a good time distribution of rainfall.
  • The only area of concern is the western part of the Senegal-Mauritania border.  This is the only part of the region that has been experiencing severe rainfall deficits and 12-14 days of longest dry spell during the last 30 days as of August 20th.  This area has to be closely monitored to assess the impact of dryness on crop performance.

FORECASTS

  • The short and medium-term NOAA/CPC’s forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next two weeks (Aug 21-Sep 4) with no expected dry spells.
  • For the next several two month periods (September-November and October-December), seasonal forecasts from the NOAA-NCEP) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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