Seasonal Monitor

Seasonal forecasts call for generally good conditions for the growing season

June 15, 2014

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • April and May rainfall led to favorable conditions for crop development throughout the region as the season ranges from fully underway in the south to just beginning in the north.

  • In the northern part of the Sudanian-Sahlian zone where planting has not yet begun, timely sowing/planting is expected given the favorable medium term forecast for that area.

  • In contrast to earlier seasonal forecasts, more recent seasonal forecasts call for above-average rainfall totals for the season over most of the region, which should lead to good crop and pasture development.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • Beginning in April with the onset of the rains and continuing through early May, the Intertertropical Front (ITF) progressed faster than seasonally typical northward, remaining north of its climatological position. Beginning in mid-May, however, its northward progression slowed, keeping it closer to its climatological position.
  • The early northward position of the ITF resulted in early and above-average rainfall over most of the region (Figures 1 and 2), though the monsoon season is yet to be fully established in Senegal and Mauritania. The temporal distribution of the rains has also been good, compensating in the Bi-modal and Guinean-Sudanian zone for the light to moderate rainfall deficits observed in some areas.
  • The generally above–average and well distributed rainfall observed throughout the month of April and during the first half of May made for favorable cropping conditions in the Bi-modal zone. It also allowed for an early planting and for continued crop development in the Guinean-Sudanian zone. Early partial planting was also possible in the south of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone in late April and during the first half of May.
  • Slowed northward migration of the ITF during the second half of May did not allow for the northward expansion of the early rains as was seen in previous weeks. It did, however, result in some moderate rainfall that benifited the first crop development stages where sowing already took place in the southern Sudanian-Sahelian zone. Crop (mainly millet) phenology in these areas varied from emergence to tillering. The northern part of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, is expected to see on-time planting conditions given favorable medium-term forecasts.
  • According to short and medium term forecasts from NOAA/CPC, generally moderate to heavy rainfall is expected during the second and third weeks of  June over the whole region at the exception of the western part of the Sudanian-Sahelian (southern Mauritania, southwestern Mali and Senegal).

Forecasts

Most forecast models indicate a continued warming trend for the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SST), and will transition into weak or moderate El Niño conditions by the early northern summer, though this is not expected to have any significant influence on the rainfall pattern over West Africa. The SST forecast of the Tropical Eastern Atlantic calls for a cooling trend over the Gulf of Guinea and a strong south-north SST gradients along the western coast of West Africa. This situation is typically closely related to above-average rainfall over much of the Sudanian-Sahelian zone, which is corroborated by the NOAA-CPC Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecast for the next several three-month periods (June-August, July-September and August-October).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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